NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center:Diamondbacks can't walk fine line, blow World Series Game 1: 'Don't let those guys beat you'

ARLINGTON,NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center Texas – The three busses taking the Arizona Diamondbacks back to their Dallas hotel awaited outside Globe Life Field. Yet manager Torey Lovullo, general manager Mike Hazen and various members of the club’s brain trust gathered in the manager’s office didn’t look like they were going anywhere for a while.

They sat in that between land between World Series Game 1 and 2, a place to dissect what just happened and workshop what comes next. And while it is too soon in this Fall Classic to say the club may not have an answer for the Texas Rangers, two swings of the bat in the ninth and 11^th innings suggest it may be reality.  

Just two outs away from capturing Game 1, Arizona’s bullpen blew its first late-inning lead in 13 games this postseason, breaking two of the game’s cardinal rules of October: Don’t give up walks. And don’t let the superstars beat you.

Yet when the calendar gets this late, it’s easier said than done.

Friday night, it was Diamondbacks closer Paul Sewald joining the ranks of relievers who blew World Series games, a reluctant fraternity ranging from Dennis Eckersley to Byung-Hyun Kim to Neftalí Feliz. Corey Seager was the hero, destroying a first-pitch Sewald fastball with a vicious uppercut swing to tie the game with a one-out, two-run homer in the bottom of the ninth.

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Adolis García played the inevitable hero, drilling a walk-off homer off Miguel Castro in the 11th inning for a 6-5 Rangers victory. Seager and García’s blasts may very well play on highlight loops for time eternal in the Metroplex, particularly if the Rangers win three more games and their first World Series title ever.

Yet it is what happened two batters before Seager, when Sewald issued a leadoff walk on five pitches to No. 9 hitter Leody Taveras that will haunt him, for one night at least and longer if Arizona does not turn it around.

“They have such a potent offense,” Sewald said in a silent Diamondbacks clubhouse. “And you have to try get the bottom of the lineup before the top comes up. That’s what I’ll be most frustrated with was walk Taveras.

“Seager’s one of the 10 best players in this league. And you’ve got to try to face him with nobody on there.”

But therein lies the Diamondbacks’ gutting reality: They powered through the Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers, winning all five games, before surviving a seven-game National League Championship Series against Philadelphia, including winning the final two games at Citizens Bank Park.

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The point: Arizona’s done this before. The counterpoint: Nobody’s as hot as Seager and García. And nobody’s as deep as the Rangers.

“We just faced a team," says reliever Kyle Nelson, referring to the Phillies, "with incredible hitters, that we had to kind of ride that same fine line with."

Nelson recorded four outs after Sewald’s departure to extend the game into the 11^th inning, before Castro was summoned and gave up García’s one-out blast.

“You try not to let those guys beat you, the best you can, but the thing about lineups like this is the role players are just as capable.”

Indeed, Taveras has been solid this postseason, with a .354 on-base percentage, including seven walks, coming into the World Series.

The No. 9 hitter for Philadelphia? That would be Johan Rojas, 4 for 43 this postseason, with a .114 OBP.

Yes, perhaps Texas is just that much deeper – with two All-Stars performing at an incredibly high level.

Seager has 16 hits, four homers and 14 walks this postseason, an absurd .438 OBP.

Garcia has hit home runs in five consecutive games. He has driven in 22 runs, a postseason record.

What now?

“What am I thinking? That we've got to make pitches and be careful because he's done this at a very high level for a very long time,” Lovullo says of Seager. “I sat back down and reminded myself, this is the World Series for a reason. The best players are here on the stage and the best players do big-time things.

“So I feel like we did script it pretty well.”

That script has been dominant for two months. Up until Sewald’s encounter with Seager, they’d allowed just two home runs this postseason, no more than one run in 14 of their 19 games and posted a 2.27 ERA.

They have no choice but to try again Saturday in Game 2.

“I hope more than anything,” says Sewald, “these guys get me the lead and I get the exact same chance tomorrow and hopefully I pitch a little bit better and we walk out of here with a win.”